Canadian Mortgage Rate Report — October 12, 2026
Published
The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is 2.25%, which puts the Big Six prime rate at 4.45%. Variable mortgage rates are priced as a discount or premium to prime, so an existing variable rate moves only when prime does, and prime follows the Bank's policy rate. The Bank has now held for 7 consecutive decisions.
The best insured 5-year fixed rate we track is 4.34% and the best 5-year variable is 3.25%: variable is 1.09 percentage points cheaper today, but your payment or amortization changes whenever prime moves.
Fixed rates follow the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, currently 3.60% (2026-10-08). Annual CPI inflation was 3.0% in August 2026, above the Bank's 2% target. The next rate decision is on October 28, 2026.
If your mortgage renews in the next 120 days, ask your lender and at least one broker for a rate hold now: holds usually cost nothing, and many lenders will honour a lower rate if prices fall before your renewal date.
Hold at 2.25%
Base caseThe Bank keeps the overnight rate at 2.25% on October 28, 2026. Prime stays at 4.45% and variable payments do not change.
Cut to 2.00%
AlternativeWeaker growth or inflation below 2% leads to a 0.25-point cut. Prime falls to 4.20%, lowering variable payments.
Hike to 2.50%
AlternativeInflation running above target leads to a 0.25-point hike. Prime rises to 4.70%; fixed rates follow bond yields.
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