The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is 2.25%, which puts the Big Six prime rate at 4.45%. Variable mortgage rates are priced as a discount or premium to prime, so an existing variable rate moves only when prime does, and prime follows the Bank's policy rate. The Bank has now held for 7 consecutive decisions.
The best insured 5-year fixed rate we track is 4.34% and the best 5-year variable is 3.25%: variable is 1.09 percentage points cheaper today, but your payment or amortization changes whenever prime moves.
Fixed rates follow the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, currently 3.60% (2026-10-08). Annual CPI inflation was 3.0% in August 2026, above the Bank's 2% target. The next rate decision is on October 28, 2026.
If your mortgage renews in the next 120 days, ask your lender and at least one broker for a rate hold now: holds usually cost nothing, and many lenders will honour a lower rate if prices fall before your renewal date.
Analysis based on Bank of Canada data, Statistics Canada CPI reports, and major bank economist forecasts. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.