Canadian Mortgage Rate Report — July 27, 2026
Published · rates recorded July 27, 2026
Published late
Our weekly report pipeline was down from July 27 to October 5, 2026, so this report was published on October 14, 2026. Its numbers are the ones recorded that week: mortgage rates from our snapshot of July 27, 2026, the overnight rate from the Bank of Canada schedule and the bond yield from Bank of Canada data for July 27, 2026. The commentary is generated from those numbers only; nothing was estimated.
The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is 2.25%, which puts the Big Six prime rate at 4.45%. Variable mortgage rates are priced as a discount or premium to prime, so an existing variable rate moves only when prime does, and prime follows the Bank's policy rate. The Bank has now held for 6 consecutive decisions.
The best insured 5-year fixed rate we track is 3.94% and the best 5-year variable is 3.25%: variable is 0.69 percentage points cheaper today, but your payment or amortization changes whenever prime moves.
Fixed rates follow the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, currently 3.19% (2026-07-27). The next rate decision is on September 2, 2026.
If your mortgage renews in the next 120 days, ask your lender and at least one broker for a rate hold now: holds usually cost nothing, and many lenders will honour a lower rate if prices fall before your renewal date.
Hold at 2.25%
Base caseThe Bank keeps the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026. Prime stays at 4.45% and variable payments do not change.
Cut to 2.00%
AlternativeWeaker growth or inflation below 2% leads to a 0.25-point cut. Prime falls to 4.20%, lowering variable payments.
Hike to 2.50%
AlternativeInflation running above target leads to a 0.25-point hike. Prime rises to 4.70%; fixed rates follow bond yields.
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